This article provides market information, not financial advice. Nautilus Dubai is an independent watch specialist, not a financial adviser. Nothing here is a promise of future value, and market figures quoted below are drawn from published industry reports and named sources.
Walk through Dubai's Gold Souk and you will hear the same sentence in several languages:
“This watch is an investment.”
It may be the most overused phrase in the luxury-watch market—and one of the least examined.
So rather than repeating it, let us look at what the market data actually says, which watches have demonstrated durable demand, and what we see from the inspection side that can make the difference between a strong purchase and an expensive mistake.
The luxury watch market has turned—but selectivity matters.
For much of the period after 2022, the honest answer to “Are luxury watches a good investment?” was uncomfortable.
The secondary market had peaked in early 2022 before correcting by roughly 25–30%. Many buyers who entered during the most speculative part of the 2021–2022 cycle saw substantial paper losses.
By 2026, however, the direction of the market had changed.
The WatchCharts Overall Market Index, which tracks 300 watches from ten major luxury brands and weights them by transaction value, rose by more than 10% over the twelve months to May 2026.
Morgan Stanley's quarterly reporting with WatchCharts showed secondary-market prices rising 1.9% in Q1 2026 and another 1.5% in Q2 2026, marking four consecutive quarters of growth above 1%.
Twenty-nine of the thirty-five brands tracked were positive year on year in Q2, while all four major Swiss watch groups were positive over the year for the first time since early 2022.
Other indicators point in the same direction.
The Bloomberg Subdial Watch Index gained around 8% during 2025, while Chrono24 reported that pre-owned watch prices across its platform rose 4.9% during 2025, the first positive full year since 2022.
That does not mean every luxury watch is appreciating.
The recovery has been selective.
What you buy, the reference you choose, the condition of the individual watch and the price at which you enter remain far more important than simply buying a famous logo.
Why watches behave differently from many other assets
A luxury watch is a physical asset with several unusual characteristics.
It is portable
A significant amount of value can exist in a relatively small object. In an international city such as Dubai, where collectors, residents and visitors move frequently between markets, portability contributes to the strength of the secondary-watch ecosystem.
It can be liquid - but only in the right references
Liquidity is highly concentrated.
Certain Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet references can attract buyers quickly because market demand is broad and pricing is relatively transparent.
Other watches can be excellent pieces but may take considerably longer to sell.
That distinction matters.
A watch theoretically worth AED X but requiring months to find the right buyer is a very different asset from one with an active secondary market.
It has a low correlation with some traditional markets
Watch prices do not necessarily move alongside stock markets or other traditional assets.
This is one reason alternative-asset investors have become increasingly interested in collectible watches. European asset manager Timetrade Investments, for example, opened in Dubai in 2025 while citing the UAE's concentration of wealth and appetite for alternative assets.
You can actually enjoy it
Unlike many alternative assets, a watch can be worn.
For many collectors, this is the most important point.
The best outcome is not simply owning something that holds value. It is owning something you genuinely enjoy while retaining the possibility of strong resale demand later.
But ownership has costs
This part is often omitted from investment articles.
Mechanical watches require periodic maintenance. Valuable pieces may require insurance. Buying and selling involves transaction costs.
There is also a tax difference worth understanding in the UAE.
Qualifying investment-grade gold at sufficiently high purity can receive zero-rated VAT treatment, while watches generally attract 5% VAT. That creates a real difference when comparing the net economics of a watch with bullion.
Luxury watches should therefore not be treated as cost-free investments.
They are better understood as wearable stores of value with the potential for appreciation in selected references.
What actually makes a watch hold or increase its value?
Four factors matter repeatedly.
1. The reference matters more than the brand
A Rolex is not automatically an investment.
Neither is a Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Cartier or any other luxury brand.
Specific references drive the secondary market.
Within the same manufacturer, one model may trade above retail while another loses a substantial percentage of its original price.
Independent market analysis suggests that only a relatively small number of references among the thousands available show consistent long-term appreciation.
The lesson is simple:
Buy the reference, not only the brand name.
2. Condition and originality can change everything
This is one of the areas where our perspective as an independent watch specialist becomes especially relevant.
A watch can function perfectly and still have lost considerable collector value.
Examples include:
an over-polished case with softened edges;
replacement or refinished dials;
incorrect or later service bezels;
non-original hands;
heavily stretched bracelets;
replacement components inappropriate to the reference;
previous case refinishing that altered original geometry.
Many of these details are difficult or impossible to judge reliably from ordinary online photographs.
For a high-value purchase, condition is not cosmetic trivia.
Condition is part of the asset.
For a deeper explanation of what to inspect before purchasing, read our inspection-first guide to buying a pre-owned luxury watch in Dubai.
3. Box, papers and service history matter
Documentation can materially affect both desirability and resale liquidity.
A sought-after reference with its original box, papers and documented service history will generally be easier for a future buyer to understand and evaluate.
The identical reference without documentation may still be desirable, but buyers often require a stronger price incentive.
The difference can sometimes be larger than a year of general market movement.
4. Narrative moves prices - sometimes dangerously fast
Watch markets respond to stories.
Discontinuation rumours are a good example.
During 2026, speculation surrounding the Rolex GMT-Master II “Pepsi” reference 126710BLRO contributed to a rise of almost 12% in a single quarter.
That demonstrates how quickly sentiment can influence the market.
It also shows why buying purely because of a rumour can be dangerous.
Narrative can lift prices quickly.
It can also reverse.
Ten luxury watches with a proven secondary-market record
The watches below have developed durable collector demand over years rather than weeks.
Where Nautilus currently holds an example, we have linked it. Stock changes regularly, so availability and price should always be confirmed at the time of enquiry.
You can also browse the current Nautilus Dubai watch collection.
1. Rolex Cosmograph Daytona
The Daytona remains one of the most recognised and most consistently requested luxury chronographs in the world.
Steel Daytonas have traded above retail for many years, largely because demand has persistently exceeded primary-market supply.
That does not make every Daytona equally valuable.
Reference, configuration, condition and originality remain critical.
What we inspect
For Daytona references, particular attention may be given to:
chronograph start, stop and reset operation;
pusher condition;
bezel originality;
dial and hands;
bracelet and clasp;
case geometry and previous refinishing.
Over-polishing is particularly important because strong original case lines can materially influence collector appeal.
2. Rolex GMT-Master II — Pepsi and BLNR
The GMT-Master II combines strong brand recognition, practical functionality and extremely deep secondary-market demand.
References such as the 126710BLRO “Pepsi” and the 126710BLNR are among the most liquid modern sports Rolex watches.
Liquidity is important because value on paper means little if a buyer cannot exit the position efficiently.
What we inspect
GMT-hand operation;
bezel and insert condition;
dial and hand consistency;
bracelet and clasp;
case edges;
previous refinishing.
→ Rolex GMT-Master II 126710BLRO
→ Rolex GMT-Master II 126710BLNR
You can also read our detailed Rolex GMT-Master II Pepsi vs Batgirl comparison.
3. Rolex Datejust, Day-Date and Sky-Dweller
These references may receive less speculative attention than the Daytona or GMT-Master II, but their strength is consistent global demand.
The Datejust in particular has one of the widest buyer bases in the luxury-watch market.
For value retention, constant real-world demand can be more important than temporary hype.
What we inspect
dial originality;
bracelet and clasp;
crown operation;
date-change behaviour;
case geometry;
previous polishing or replacement components.
→ Rolex Datejust Wimbledon 126334-0022
→ Rolex Sky-Dweller 336934-0005
4. Patek Philippe Nautilus
Designed by Gérald Genta and launched in 1976, the Nautilus remains one of the defining integrated-bracelet luxury sports watches.
The discontinued 5711/1A continues to command major secondary-market demand despite having corrected substantially from the extraordinary prices reached during the 2021–2022 peak.
Patek Philippe recorded around 16.2% pre-owned price growth during 2025 in the market data used for this guide and regained the lead in value retention during Q2 2026.
One particularly interesting trend is size.
Market tracking showed the smaller 35 mm Nautilus 7118 rising approximately 52% over two years, compared with around 27% for the 40 mm 5711.
That is another indication that smaller case sizes are receiving renewed attention from collectors.
What we inspect
The Nautilus requires particular care around:
bracelet condition and stretch;
original finishing;
bezel and case geometry;
transitions between polished and brushed surfaces;
dial;
hallmarks;
previous refinishing.
A badly polished Nautilus can lose an important part of the visual architecture that makes the design collectible.
→ Patek Philippe Nautilus 5711/1A-010
5. Patek Philippe Aquanaut
The Aquanaut remains the younger and more casual counterpart to the Nautilus.
According to the market data used for this article, the Aquanaut collection rose approximately 3.6% during Q2 2026, leading Patek Philippe's major collection-level gains for the quarter.
Strong primary-market demand and restricted availability continue to support the secondary market.
What we inspect
case condition;
dial and hand consistency;
strap condition;
clasp;
crown and setting functions;
reference-specific originality.
→ Patek Philippe Aquanaut 5167R-001
→ Patek Philippe Aquanaut 5164R-001
6. Audemars Piguet Royal Oak
Another Gérald Genta design, the Royal Oak arrived in 1972 and fundamentally changed what a luxury steel watch could be.
For the modern secondary market, however, it is important to distinguish between Audemars Piguet collections.
During Q2 2026, market tracking used for this guide showed:
Royal Oak: +2.0%
CODE 11.59: −0.5%
Royal Oak Offshore: −1.5%
That is a good example of why the specific collection matters more than simply buying the brand.
What we inspect
The Royal Oak's finishing is central to its value.
We examine:
bezel condition;
screw alignment and condition;
tapisserie dial;
bracelet;
clasp;
case geometry;
alternating brushed and polished surfaces.
Careless polishing can significantly alter these surfaces.
→ Audemars Piguet Royal Oak 15510ST.OO.1320ST.06
7. Vacheron Constantin Overseas and 222
Vacheron Constantin offers another route into the integrated-bracelet sports-watch category.
The historical 222 and modern Overseas have gained significantly more collector attention as buyers have looked beyond the Nautilus and Royal Oak.
For some collectors, that relative lack of hype is precisely the attraction.
What we inspect
bracelet integration and stretch;
case condition;
movement and complications;
service history;
dial;
evidence of previous polishing.
→ Vacheron Constantin Overseas 16550
8. Cartier - Tank, Santos and Panthère
Cartier has been one of the most interesting parts of the 2025–2026 secondary market.
According to the market research used for this guide, the Panthère collection gained 4.1% in Q1 2026 and approximately 11.9% over twelve months, making it one of the strongest-performing collections tracked by WatchCharts.
A Chrono24 study reported by Robb Report also found that the Must de Cartier Tank Vermeil had risen close to 300% since 2018, while a Rolex Datejust 41 over the same comparison period had increased by roughly 59%.
Those numbers should not be treated as promises of future returns.
What they demonstrate is that collector demand has expanded beyond the traditional steel-sports-watch category.
What we inspect
dial printing and originality;
case geometry;
crown and cabochon;
bracelet;
previous refinishing;
movement appropriate to the reference.
9. Omega Speedmaster and vintage Seamaster
Omega is often a more accessible entry point into serious collecting.
The Speedmaster has deep historical recognition and a very broad collector community, while important vintage Seamaster references continue to attract interest as the vintage market matures.
Their strength is not necessarily artificial scarcity.
It is recognisability, history and a global buyer base.
What we inspect
Vintage Omega watches require close attention to:
dial originality;
hands;
movement and reference consistency;
service replacement components;
case thickness and previous polishing;
bezel;
bracelet.
Service dials and replacement components are relatively common, which makes inspection particularly important.
→ Omega Seamaster 300 ref. 165.024
10. Tudor Black Bay
Tudor demonstrates that serious collecting does not need to begin with six-figure pricing.
The research underlying this article recorded approximately 11.4% pre-owned price growth for Tudor during 2025, while the Tudor Submariner was one of the strongest-performing tracked collections during Q1 2026.
Modern Black Bay models have also built a wide international buyer base.
What we inspect
Because Tudor sports watches are often worn actively, we pay attention to:
bezel action;
crown;
gasket and seal condition;
bracelet;
clasp;
impact signs;
service history.
→ Tudor Black Bay Fifty-Eight M79012M-0001
And one more: Gérald Genta under his own name
Two major watches already discussed — the Royal Oak and Nautilus — were designed by Gérald Genta.
Far fewer collectors explore the watches produced under Genta's own name.
His independent work included jumping-hour displays, retrograde indications, Bi-Retro layouts, unusual case architecture and watches such as the Gefica.
Collector awareness has been increasing.
At Sotheby's in Geneva, Gérald Genta's personal Royal Oak sold for approximately US$2.1 million, while a group of 55 Genta-designed watches in the same sale achieved a combined result of approximately US$10.7 million.
Christie's Dubai has also achieved strong results for significant Gérald Genta pieces, while the Gérald Genta name is now being revived within LVMH.
Nautilus Dubai carries an unusually deep selection of Gérald Genta watches.
We will not tell you what any of these pieces will be worth in five or ten years.
Nobody can responsibly promise that.
But it is an area where knowledge remains less evenly distributed than in Rolex, Patek Philippe or Audemars Piguet — and markets with uneven knowledge can be especially interesting for serious collectors.
→ Gérald Genta Arena Bi-Retro BIR.L.10
→ Read our Gérald Genta collector's guide
Why Dubai matters for the pre-owned luxury-watch market
Dubai has developed one of the world's most active luxury-watch ecosystems.
The buyer base is exceptionally international, with collectors and sellers arriving from across the GCC, Europe, Asia and the CIS.
The city's concentration of wealth, tourism, specialist dealers and international connectivity creates a deep secondary market for recognised references.
But an active market also means buyers need to separate the individual watch from the story surrounding it.
Two examples of the same reference can differ significantly in:
condition;
originality;
polishing;
documentation;
service history;
replacement parts;
bracelet condition;
prior repairs.
That is why inspection becomes so important.
Why Nautilus approaches an investment watch from the inspection side
Nautilus Dubai is not an authorised dealer or service centre for the brands discussed in this article.
We are an independent luxury-watch specialist.
That distinction matters.
Our team works with the watches from the technical and condition side — repair, restoration, inspection, assessment and sourcing — rather than looking only at the listing photograph.
For buyers considering a significant purchase, Nautilus can support the process through:
Independent watch verification
Our watch verification service provides an independent specialist assessment based on physical examination of the watch, movement and identifying details.
It is not manufacturer certification and does not create an official brand guarantee of authenticity.
Private sourcing
If you know the exact reference you want, use our Watch Finder.
Rather than limiting the conversation to whatever happens to be available at that moment, the team can search discreetly for the requested reference.
Repair and maintenance
Condition does not stop mattering after purchase.
Use Repair Doctor if a watch requires technical attention, servicing or restoration assessment.
You can also read our guide to luxury watch maintenance in Dubai.
Selling and consignment
Every collector eventually becomes a seller.
If you are considering an exit, replacement or collection change, you can start through Sell My Watch.
Four rules worth remembering
If you take only four things from this guide, make them these:
1. Buy the reference, not just the logo
The differences between individual references within the same brand can be larger than the differences between brands.
2. Condition and documentation are part of the value
A strong full-set example with good originality can behave very differently from the same reference after excessive polishing, replacement parts or missing documentation.
3. Liquidity matters as much as appreciation
Theoretical value is not the same as being able to sell a watch efficiently at a realistic market price.
4. Buy something you genuinely want to own
Watches are unusual because they can provide enjoyment while you hold them.
If market performance disappoints, you should still be happy that you own and wear the watch.
That is a far healthier starting point than buying a reference you dislike because somebody online called it “the next investment.”
Looking for a particular investment-grade or collectible watch in Dubai?
If you have a specific reference in mind — one you already own, one you are considering buying, or one you would like Nautilus to source — contact our team.
Browse watches currently available
Start a private Watch Finder request
Request independent watch verification
Nautilus Dubai
Shop 15, Ground Floor
One Deira Mall, Gold Souk
Deira, Dubai, UAE
Monday–Saturday: 10:00–22:00
Sunday: Closed
WhatsApp: +971 54 796 7380
Telephone: +971 4 272 8996
Nautilus Dubai is an independent luxury-watch specialist and is not affiliated with or authorised by the brands mentioned in this article unless explicitly stated. Brand names and references are used descriptively. Historical market performance does not guarantee future returns. This article is market information and not financial advice.